This is the story of a Wall Street week for the history books.
It’s not even dark in New York when the trading week begins in earnest in New Zealand, 9,000 miles and 17 hours away. It will be a long day.after the cartel it dominates, OPEC+, failed to reach agreement with Russia. Already in the Middle East, where most exchanges operate on a Sunday-to-Thursday basis, equities have tumbled.
What makes this oil shock worse is the timing: Thanks to the coronavirus, global markets are already on edge. When the bell does sound on Wall Street, the rout begins. Losses reach 7% four minutes in, triggering NYSE circuit breakers that halt trading for 15 minutes.With the S&P 500 destined for a 7.6% drop and crude set to close down around 25%, investors rush to the safest assets. The dash into Treasuries is so ferocious that the entire U.S. yield curve drops below 1% for the first time in history.
Anxiety is mounting across the markets, exacerbating strains that were already showing up in credit as investors worried about companies’ ability to service debts during the virus outbreak. The cost to protect against default on North American corporate debt surges the most since Lehman Brothers collapsed. An index of leveraged loans drops the most since 2008.
Foreign-exchange moves are a huge factor in international capital markets and economies, because they influence the terms of trade between nations, companies and investors everywhere. For years, implied currency volatility has been in retreat amid globalization and coordinated central bank activity, not to mention an era of perpetually low rates and quantitative easing.
In other words, there has been a small but steady increase in the cost of dollar funding — putting participantsfor stress in the system, because the greenback is the ultimate global funding currency.
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