In 2016, 6% of all voters cast ballots for third-party and write-in candidates. But in 2020, that proportion fell to 2%, effectively changing the threshold the major candidates needed to reach to win key battleground states.
46th and current president of the United StatesAmong all the reasons Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in 2020 but Hillary Clinton didn’t four years earlier, one looms especially large for the coming presidential election: the share of the third-party vote.
Take battleground Pennsylvania, for example: Trump defeated Clinton in the state in 2016, 48.2% to 47.5%. But as the third-party vote declined in 2020, Biden won it, 49.9% to 48.7%. It all raises important questions for the 2024 presidential election: Will the size of the third-party vote be closer to 2016’s? Will it look more like 2020’s? And could that affect the outcome of another presidential election?The strategists behind No Labels believe there is a hunger for an alternative to Biden and Trump, and they’re spending $70 million to launch an independent unity ticket that could have ballot access in all 50 states — and that could win, they say.
They also dismiss complaints that their third-party bid would disproportionately take votes away from the Democratic ticket, saying their own polling showed an equal share of Democrats and Republicans supporting an unnamed moderate independent candidate over Biden and Trump. Clancy said Democrats portray themselves as “protectors of democracy,” but he argued that efforts to keep No Labels off the ballot — and limit the presidential choices to just two parties — runs contrary to democracy.
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