Traders are concerned there is another shoe to drop: more retaliatory measures from China, which may or may not come in the form of tariffs.
What other form would retaliation take? It wouldn't be hard to imagine. China has already cancelled a large pork order. It could come in the form of regulatory harassment of U.S. corporations operating in China, but it could be even simpler.
Jim Kelleher at Argus tells his clients to watch for sudden announcement of loss of business: "We would be careful to monitor investments in U.S. 'champion' names such as Boeing and Caterpillar. Should the trade environment between the U.S. and China deteriorate further, Chinese officials could directly or indirectly discourage Chinese companies and consumers from doing business with high-profile symbols of U.S. corporate might.
Kelleher also warns against simply using a dollars and cents approach to trade: "Trade can be about more than dollar amounts. Business is a delicate mix of activity and sentiment; deterioration in sentiment can have an outsized effect on activity. Moreover, global supply chains have become complicated and entangled among nations. Counting the dollar value of car parts, for example, does not capture how those delayed or absent parts may impact the production of an entire vehicle.
President Trump, presumably, is well aware of this, but Chris Krueger at Cowen notes that his efforts to shield farmers from the pain felt by retaliatory tariffs may be skewing his thinking: "The most important takeaway is that anything that insulates Trump's base from the near term costs of his actions raises the likelihood we continue on the tariff path."
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