Cities such as Kandahar and Kunduz are essentially under siege
IN SIX WEEKS the last American soldier in Afghanistan will leave the country . After twenty years of American presence, the troop withdrawal is causing a vacuum of power and leading to an escalation of violence. Figures published by the UN on July 26th found that civilian casualties from armed conflict in the country rose by nearly 50% in the first half of the year, compared to a year earlier.
When Donald Trump was still in the White House some had hoped that America’s deal with the Taliban to withdraw from Afghanistan would lead to a reduction in violence, and allow true peace negotiations to begin with Afghanistan’s government. But instead of talking, the militants have taken the opportunity to gain ground from the demoralised Afghan army. They have launched audacious attacks even in urban areas, which have generally been held by government forces.
What happens next is anyone’s guess. Many analysts fear that this is the beginning of a new civil war, like the one that tore Afghanistan apart in the 1990s after the Soviet withdrawal in 1989. The omens are bad. Reports from Spin Boldak are that, upon taking over, the Taliban has been summarily executing people it thinks are government supporters. As the Afghan army has fallen back the president, Ashraf Ghani, has turned to arming militias to fight the Taliban.
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