The WHO has reported on three possible futures of the pandemic - via healthing_ca healthing health Canada healthnews
Maija Kappler,The World Health Organization has released a report detailing what it says is the most likely path forward from this point on in the pandemic, as well several other potential scenarios. There’s a chance the virus will become less severe and a chance it will get much worse — but the most probably outcome is somewhere in the middle.
The “base case,” or the scenario that seems the most plausible, is that the virus that causes COVID will continue to evolve, but outbreaks will lessen in severity given the immunity that comes from vaccines. That doesn’t mean the virus will go away, or that it’s something we can ignore. WHO predicts waning immunity will be an issue and could cause “periodic spikes in transmission.
It’s not exactly pre-pandemic life, but it’s better than the worst case scenario. What could still happen, the report warns, is that a variant could emerge that’s highly transmissible and causes more severe illness, against which the vaccine is less effective. If that were to happen, hospitalization and death numbers could continue to mount, especially among people “in the most vulnerable groups.
The best case scenario, meanwhile, would involve future variants that are both less severe and less transmissible, allowing us maintain public health standards without the need for regular boosters or alternations to the existing vaccines.One of the most important ways to avoid the worst case scenario is to keep tracking the virus’ spread, the report says, criticizing the jurisdictions who have let up on tracing as restrictions begin to lift.
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