For three overlapping reasons, 2018 sent a stronger-than-usual signal about the upcoming White House contest, writes John Harwood.
Vegas oddsmakers, shrugging off the House Democrats' midterm election triumph, favor President Trump to win a second term in 2020. So do Wall Street insiders.
Vegas oddsmakers, shrugging off the House Democrats' midterm election triumph, favor President Trump to win a second term in 2020. So do Wall Street insiders. The 2010 elections reflected a similar dynamic, wiping out conservative remnants within the Democratic caucus. The 63-seat House Republican gain included 51 rural districts that Democrats had snatched amid the Wall Street crisis and unpopular Iraq War in 2008.In 2016, Trump edged Hillary Clinton among suburban voters, just as Mitt Romney had edged Obama four years earlier.
Both Clinton and Obama began their presidencies with Gallup job approval well above 50%. They dipped below that level before their first midterms, but moved above 50% again approaching their reelections.
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