A coin toss isn't as fair as everybody thought, say scientists, after 350,000 flips.
Sign up for our email newsletter for the latest science newsWhen Italy’s national soccer team took on the Soviet Union in the semi-finals of the European Championship in 1968, the score was 0-0 at the end of the game and a further period of extra time failed to separate the two sides.
First some background. Bartoš and co say that in the standard model of coin tossing, a coin flip obeys the laws of Newtonian physics in a transparent fashion with the randomness originating in tiny differences in the starting conditions of the toss. The effect is small. Diaconis and co calculated that it should be about 0.51 — in other words, the coin should land on the same side as it started 51 percent of the time. And they took high-speed videos of flipped coins to show this wobble.
Their results are conclusive. “The data reveal overwhelming statistical evidence for the presence of same-side bias,” say Bartoš and co. “When people flip a coin, it tends to land on the same side as it started.” That’s interesting work raising the important question of whether it is possible to exploit this bias. Bartoš and co explore this question using the following betting scenario. “If you bet a dollar on the outcome of a coin toss and repeat the bet 1,000 times, knowing the starting position of the coin toss would earn you 19 dollars on average.”
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