Steven Goldstein is based in London and responsible for MarketWatch's coverage of financial markets in Europe, with a particular focus on global macro and commodities. Previously, he was Washington bureau chief, directing MarketWatch's economic, political and regulatory coverage. Follow Steve on Twitter: @MKTWgoldstein.
Economists at U.K. bank Barclays, one of the primary dealers for U.S. Treasurys, pushed back their call for a Federal Reserve rate hike to January.
The move by Barclays came after a weaker-than-forecast 150,000 rise in payrolls, which also was accompanied by data showing the work week slipping by 0.1 hours. They also note that ISM reports were downbeat, leading the bank to reduce its fourth-quarter GDP forecast to 1.5% annualized.“Critically, elaborated that such developments matter for rate decisions only to the extent that they are ‘persistent’ and not simply ‘a reflection of expected policy moves.
Developments since the meeting seemingly contradict both conditions, with the retracing much of its increase since the September meeting, the stock market rebounding, and the dollar softening,” said economists led by Jonathan Miller. “In other words, the FOMC is caught in a circularity loop, as its intention to formulate policy based upon tightened conditions works to undermine this tightness.”
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 10% chance of another rate hike by December, and a 16% chance of a move by February. U.S. stock futures ES00, +0.18% inched higher while the yield on the 10-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rose 7 basis points to 4.59%.
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