Tropical Depression Three has formed in the Atlantic Ocean.
At the moment, at least into next weekend, it would appear some troughing will remain over or near the Eastern U.S. The location of this trough could/should prove critical on the ultimate path in the long range.
Long-range global models remain in fairly remarkable agreement considering it’s still so early in the game and so early in the season. The European model has been weaker on intensity and therefore, farther west before turning northward near Puerto Rico. The GFS model has been consistently strong with a fairly sharp turn north by late in the week into the weekend far to the east of the Caribbean & U.S.
So this is a “stay tuned” situation across the Atlantic Basin and don’t let the strong wave way out to the east overshadow the possibility of quick tropical development over the Gulf near Florida by late in the week.
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