A portrait is beginning to emerge of both Tropical Storm Ian's internal structure and the steering winds that will set its path across the eastern Gulf in the upcoming five days.
As of the NHC 11 a.m. Saturday advisory, the broad center of Ian is located about 300 miles south of Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph. Ian has nudged a bit further south than expected in the last day, and some further jumps in the location of the surface circulation are possible into Sunday as the storm’s structure continues to slowly improve.
Let’s see how those possible variations in short-term track and long-term steering add up, four quadrant threat matrix-style:This scenario requires both a stronger trough and a more northward initial track, in which Ian is crossing west-central Cuba on Monday and then races northeast across the Keys and South Florida on Tuesday.
This is particularly true as while Ian’s intensity may crest on Tuesday, major hurricane strength is still favored to persist into Wednesday. The general target area in such a situation would begin north of the Tampa Bay area and extend into the Big Bend or eastern Panhandle, depending on the vagaries of trough evolution and how wide a swing Ian actually makes into the Gulf.
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