Pres. Trump’s approval rating has improved slightly amid the coronavirus pandemic. But the short-term gains, reflecting a possible rally-around-the-flag effect at the time of national emergency, may not hold, NateSilver538 writes.
Note that the models are reasonably similar to one another. However, there are some differences. Namely, the predictions are more sensitive to economic performance when we use data for elected incumbents only . That means incumbents like Trump get a larger share of credit or blame when they’re managing the economy, rather than when the torch is being passed, such as between Clinton and Al Gore in 2000 or George W. Bush and John McCain in 2008.
First, the Electoral College. In 2016, there was roughly a 3-point gap between Trump’s performance in the popular vote, which he lost by 2 percentage points to Hillary Clinton, and in the, Wisconsin, which he won by about 1 point. Losing the popular vote by 4 to 6 points would probably not be enough to save Trump in the Electoral College, but it would at least be an open question.
Do models built on ordinary business cycle crests and slumps work in the midst of a global pandemic — something that the U.S. hasn’t experienced in any recent election year? At the same time, there are some objections that I don’t necessarily find compelling. Each of these could make for its own article, and we may cover some of them at more length later. But let’s run through them quickly in a lighting round:Maybe.
México Últimas Noticias, México Titulares
Similar News:También puedes leer noticias similares a ésta que hemos recopilado de otras fuentes de noticias.
Against Coronavirus, the Fed’s Banking Stress Test Doesn’t Look So BadBankers wonder if regulatory stress tests are even worth it this year as the coronavirus pandemic decimates the economy
Leer más »
Asian economies may ride out the coronavirus crisis better than the West, analysts sayThe coronavirus outbreak appears more contained in Asia now, while it's still running its course in the West, according to Morgan Stanley.
Leer más »
Iran warns of second wave of coronavirusIran may face a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak, government spokesman Al...
Leer más »
In coronavirus pandemic, Trump allies say they're ready to die for the economySome conservatives are urging Americans to ignore the advice of public health experts and get back to work in order to avoid an extended market downturn.
Leer más »
Italian Nurse Reportedly Takes Own Life After Testing Positive for CoronavirusCoronavirus may have contributed to an Italian nurse taking her own life after testing positive.
Leer más »
While coronavirus reigns, Trump can't jump-start the economy by himselfThe White House is pushing to return things back to normal by Easter, but there is only so much the federal government can do amid the pandemic if local leaders maintain shutdowns.
Leer más »