US Dollar is at breaking point ahead of critical US data and the Fed DollarIndex Currencies Fed GDP
will be hesitant to make any moves into Thursday and next week's central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. At the time of writing, DXY is trading down some 0.25% and has travelled between a high of 102.118 and a low of 101.576. Earlier in the week, the US dollar got a brief boost due to the S&P Global reporting preliminary January PMI readings. Thecame in at 46.8 vs. 46.0 expected and 46.2 in December, Services PMI came in at 46.6 vs. 45.
''WIRP suggests a 25 bp hike on February 1 is fully priced in, with less than 5% odds of a larger 50 bp move. Another 25 bp hike March 22 is about 80% priced in, while one last 25 bp hike in Q2 is only 35% priced in. We think these odds are too low,'' they said. ''Furthermore, the swaps market continues to price in an easing cycle by year-end and we just don’t see that happening.
The weekly bearish impulse coupled come undone in the next days and lead to a bullish correction with the 38.2% Fibonacci eyed around 103.10.
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