Caleb Williams’ Trojans will try to keep their season alive, while Sam Hartman’s Irish are attempting to recover from two losses in their past three games.
As a betting man, I think this is an excellent buy-low spot for Notre Dame in a solid situational spot. The Trojans are off consecutive emotional, underwhelming victories, including scraping by Arizona last week in overtime. Arizona out-gained USC by 150 total yards , had possession for nearly 12 more minutes , and generated five more first downs .
Arizona also generated more Expected Points Added per Play and had a higher Success Rate . While USC had a 61% post-game win expectancy, the Buffaloes had 60 more yards, six more first downs, a higher EPA per Play and a higher Success Rate. The Trojans barely squeaked by against two lackluster college football teams. Arizona ranks 39th in SP+, and Colorado ranks 80th. They’re 6-0, and their quarterback is second in the Heisman Trophy odds market, but it’s been far from pretty.So, it’s the perfect time to sell high on an overvalued Trojans team coming off consecutive “lucky” wins, especially now that they’re facing a step-up in competition. There’s no reason the Irish should’ve lost to Ohio State.
So, while Lincoln Riley’s offense is the best in college football, his defense continues to let him down week in and week out. The Irish have an elite offensive line, led by future NFL right tackle Joe Alt, and a solid ground game spearheaded by running back Audric Estime.Conversely, the Irish could slow down the Trojans’ elite offense. Led by linebacker JD Bertrand, they’re 15th nationally in Success Rate allowed and fourth in EPA per Play allowed.
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