Economists at Danske Bank forecast USD/JPY towards 130 on 6/12M horizon. Global environment favours the Yen For the rest of this year, the biggest dri
For the rest of this year, the biggest driver of the JPY is likely the developments in global yields, especially US yields, and energy prices, to a lesser extent. We deem that US yields are at , which is the main argument for our bearish USD/JPY stance.
If the US enters a recession within the next couple of quarters, prompting the Fed to start a rate-cutting cycle, we find it unlikely that the BoJ will start normalizing monetary policy as long as the Fed is cutting rates. In such a scenario, the BoJ will keep policy unchanged until at least H2 2024 when the Fed is done cutting rates. That scenario will likely add support to the JPY on the back of narrowing rate differentials.
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