The amount of output forgone because of vaccine delays will be roughly equivalent to the GDP of France. Two-thirds of this shortfall will be borne by poorer countries
, tries to put a price on such delays. It first projects which countries will have vaccinated less than 60% of their population by mid-2022. Then it calculates how much those countries stand to lose between 2022 and 2025 compared with a scenario in which they achieve higher vaccination rates more quickly. The EIU reckons that they will miss out on $2.3trn-worth of output between 2022 and 2025.
That amount of forgone output is roughly equivalent to the GDP of France. Two-thirds of this shortfall will be borne by poorer countries that are not members of the OECD, a club of developed countries. In absolute terms Asia will be worst affected, with a projected loss of $1.7trn over three years. But it is Africa that will stomach the highest losses as a share of GDP, missing out on 3% of the region’s forecast output under a higher-vaccination scenario.
There is little prospect of the vaccine-access gap being bridged quickly. COVAX, an initiative to provide vaccines to poor countries, is supposed to distribute 1.9bn doses this year. To date, it has shipped only 210m. Rich countries that promised to donate vaccines have also fallen behind schedule, and their recent enthusiasm for administering booster doses will not help. Logistics complicate the picture in many countries: some jabs require cold storage, for example.