A study warns that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is close to a tipping point that would severely disrupt the climate – but other researchers say the timing is impossible to predict
, both at the University of Copenhagen, Denmark, used sea surface temperature data from the sub-polar North Atlantic – which dates back to 1870 – as a proxy for the stability of the AMOC.Get a dose of climate optimism delivered straight to your inbox every month.is becoming increasingly unstable and will soon hit a critical tipping point.
“The IPCC has said in their latest report that it is ‘very unlikely’ that AMOC collapses this century. Our results are actually much more negative,” says Susanne Ditlevsen. “What we would say is that if we continue emissions as now… it will probably happen between 2050 and 2080.” The collapse of the AMOC could lead to rapid sea level rise in North America, a sudden and severe drop in temperatures across northern Europe and serious disruption to monsoons across Asia.at the UK’s National Oceanography Centre warns that it isn’t clear whether sea surface temperatures can serve as a direct proxy for the resilience of the AMOC. “Sea surface temperature is affected by many other things,” she says. “It isn’t a one-to-one relationship.
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