Today's rally clearly indicates that the market is happy for the moment with just a partial deal. But the Dow gave up 200 of its 500 point gain in the final half hour as markets realized there was a cessation of tariff hikes, but no clear timeline for removal of the existing tariffs.
Investors cheered a partial trade deal with China, but soon realized there was no clear timeline for removing existing tariffs.
This partial deal, Cashin said, does not change the longer-term narrative of lower growth for 2020, nor does it end the trade wars. The reason: Chinese firms are forbidden from sharing information from their auditors with U.S. regulators because the Chinese government will not allow them to do so. The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 established the PCAOB and required that every accounting firm that issues an audit report for an SEC-reporting company to register with the PCAOB.
China, however, is one of the few countries that has not been cooperating with the PCAOB. This leaves China companies caught between two regulators--China and the U.S. The first step, he said, would be for the PCAOB to deregister the auditors, on the grounds that they are not participating in inspections. Because the companies need to have an auditor that is listed with the PCAOB, the SEC could then delist the company. This would likely be litigated and could drag on for years, he said.
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