With lawmakers failing to agree, several Brexit options remain on the table.
div > div.group > p:first-child"> The U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has seen her preferred deal with Europe rejected three times, but the very same U.K. lawmakers that voted it down have themselves failed twice to agree on any alternatives.
"The resulting uncertainty over the future political and economic relationship with the EU has had real costs for the U.K. economy, which have spilled over to other economies," Goldman analysts said in a note to clients this week. Of the alternatives that lawmakers have been looking into, J.P. Morgan predicts Parliament will coalesce around a single"softer Brexit" option this week.
The bank noted that a general election would only increase uncertainty and would possibly strengthen the hand of the separatist Scottish National Party . The bank raised its estimate for the chances of a no-deal Brexit to 25 percent from 20 percent and is targeting an exchange rate of 90 pence per euro. On Monday, the euro was buying 85.61 pence.
"More relevant, in our view is the fact that polling suggests the result could be similar to that in 2017, which has led to the current parliamentary deadlock," said Deutsche Bank macro strategist, Oliver Harvey.Swiss giant UBS uses its latest Brexit analysis to suggest that an early general election in the U.K. may now be inevitable.
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