Projections range from zero to low single-digit growth. The evidence from early reporters so far is positive, but then there are unusual surprises—up or down.
Fire the confetti cannon and high-five the dog: U.S. companies are expected to report zero quarterly earnings growth in the weeks ahead.
OK, keep energy in. But note that the S&P 500’s third-quarter earnings-growth forecast of zero is weighted, like the index itself, by company size. The median, or middle, earnings-growth forecast is a positive 2%. That might not seem like a significant difference, but I’ll bet equal-weight indexers are fist-pumping right now. All 12 of them.
Anyhow, BofA Securities is predicting actual, non-lowballed third-quarter earnings growth of 4%. It points to corroborating evidence from what are called early reporters. Forecasts for future results look even better. Consensus estimates have fourth-quarter earnings growing 8%. Take some off for downward revisions, and then add it back on for upside surprises, and you might end up where you started. Goldman reckons the result will be strong enough to pull full-year 2023 earnings up 1% over last year, and it puts 2024 growth at 5%. BofA forecasts 2% growth this year and 6% next year.
Big Tech isn’t a sector, per se. But Goldman points out that the seven largest names contribute 17% of S&P 500 earnings today, estimated to hit 24% by 2025, but also that three are targeted in regulatory lawsuits. So I guess try to root for either consumer empowerment or a rising 401, but not both.
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