We're already in recession ... here's what to do, says economist who called the last bubble
Stock markets are looking like hard work for the day ahead, thanks largely to escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
“I think we’re probably already in a recession, but I think [it will] probably be a run of the mill affair, which means real GDP would decline 1.5% to 2%, not to 3.5% to 4%, you had in the very serious [past] recessions,” said the president of money manager A. Gary Shilling & Co. He also lays claim to having forecast a global inventory glut that led to the 1973 to 1975 U.S. downturn.
He also predicts the 10-year Treasury yield will drop to 1%, if that type of recession is borne out along with lower inflation. The yield on the 30-year T-bond would drop to 2%. “Actually, if that happens on a 30-year coupon bond, you make about 20% on your money,” he said. The chart While the Dow inches closer to a record, some have noted weakness for the small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT, -1.26% and the Dow Jones Transportation Average DJT, -1.50% which makes airlines, package delivery and railways, for example. Weakness for domestically driven smaller companies and those transport firms, seen as indicators for an economy, can spell trouble.Our chart of the day stacks up the performances of the Russell and transport stocks relative to the S&P 500.
México Últimas Noticias, México Titulares
Similar News:También puedes leer noticias similares a ésta que hemos recopilado de otras fuentes de noticias.
Analysts now expect the earnings recession to last through the third quarterWhile earnings usually come in substantially ahead of expectations — as much as 4 or 5 percentage points is not unusual — the downward direction in the outlook doesn't speak well for what lies ahead
Leer más »
Quality Control’s Coach K Says Abortion Ban Has Already Impacted Business in AtlantaA who’s who of black entertainment and tech filled the Beverly Hilton Hotel ballroom on June 22 for the 4th annual Culture Creartors Innovators and Leaders Awards brunch. Honorees included Byron Al…
Leer más »
Jenny Slate Says Her 'Life Fell Apart'—Here's What She Learned“I really needed to figure out what I thought about myself when a man was not defining that for me,” jennyslate tells R29's CRBarberich on the latest episode of UnStyledPodcast
Leer más »
Here's What John Stamos Had To Say About Lori Loughlin Not Coming Back To 'Fuller House''It's a difficult situation for everyone involved.'
Leer más »
Warren Buffett says one life decision separates successful people from the rest, and here's whyWarren Buffett says one life decision separates successful people from the rest, and here's why (Inc)
Leer más »
Trump Says Federal Reserve ‘Doesn’t Know What It Is Doing’President Trump compared the Federal Reserve to “a stubborn child” in a pair of tweets on Monday, after the bank opted not to cut interest rates during its two-day meeting last week.
Leer más »