“Many leading officials have understood over the years that the notion of Ukraine or Georgia joining NATO would be something that would run a very real risk of causing Russia to take aggressive steps against those countries.”
You wrote that, Stephen Wertheim, before NATO, but tell us what you believe is the tale that is told that is wrong.Well, the basic story — and it’s not all wrong — that is predominant in Western capitals is that Russia launched its war of aggression, its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in February last year for reasons entirely internal to Russia. That is, Russia fears a democracy in Ukraine that’s on its border, or Russia is imperialistic and covets Ukrainian territory.
Now, leading up to that summit, the guy who’s the current CIA director, Bill Burns, he was then the ambassador to Russia, and he warned Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state, that Ukraine joining NATO would constitute the brightest of all red lines for the Russian elite, not just Putin. Unfortunately, his advice wasn’t heeded.
But we have to appreciate this whole dynamic of this history in order to create a more stable and peaceful future coming out of this war when it ends, and it might be quite a while before it ends. And by erasing this history of the dynamic between Western actions and Russian actions, that can make us overlook factors that will cause problems in the future.
And the White House itself, I think, seems to be putting forward two contradictory logics on this score. On the one hand, President Biden says very clearly — and I think he absolutely means this — that the United States absolutely should not go to war with Russia over Ukraine. And that would imply not doing so not only now but also in the future.
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