What do two systems so early mean for the rest of hurricane season? It’s actually unprecedented.
Systems in the Main Development Region, or MDR, rarely form in the month of June.
But the combination of extremely warm water temperatures and lack of Saharan dust has allowed activity to organize.Bret will impact the Lesser Antilles Thursday night before pushing into the Caribbean.Tropical Depression Four is expected to become Cindy later Thursday or Friday.No June has ever featured two named storms in the MDR in recorded history.These past conditions, called analogs, are used to show similarities between other hurricane seasons and how the future may develop.
There are also other indications that very warm water temperatures in the MDR this early in the season are also an indication of an active season ahead.We have never seen two named storms in the MDR in June, so this pattern is truly unprecedented. Because it is so historic, it is hard to predict with high accuracy what will happen later this season.
The atmosphere is also transitioning away from a La Nina pattern to an El Nino pattern. This pattern swap will likely help reduce some tropical activity later in the season. The extremely active start to hurricane season in the open Atlantic is historic in nature. This quick start could forebode an active season ahead, but many factors remain in play.
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