If the conflict in Afghanistan hits stalemate, who will have an upper hand?
Most recently, the Taliban seized an Afghan border crossing with Pakistan, which has strong connections with the religiously-inspired armed group.
As a result, “countries such as Russia, India, Iran, China and Turkey [will] intervene and put pressure on all parties to come back to the negotiating table to find a peaceful solution to the decades-long conflict in the country,” Najafizada tellsAccording to Kamal Alam, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, there are mainly two political scenarios as the Taliban marches across the country.
“The question appears to be what kind of Taliban will lead Afghanistan. Whether it will be a Taliban, which will rule the country in an uncompromising manner or it will be a Taliban, which will seek some kind of consensus with other key Afghan political players,” Aras tellsThe second scenario could be the formation of a political agreement between the Taliban and “neutral” Afghans, who do not have “any connections” with the current Ashraf Ghani government, according to Alam.
Afghanistan's former President Hamid Karzai could become a potential kingmaker in the escalating conflict between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Next week, there will be a ceasefire over Eid al-Adha , an Islamic holiday, and will probably be extended to a three-month-long ceasefire to resume negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban, according to Najafizada.
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