(CNN) — Influenza is always unpredictable. Infectious disease experts like to hedge their forecasts with a caution: When you’ve seen one flu season, you’ve seen one flu season.
But when forecasters try to get a bead on what influenza might have in store for North America in any given winter, they look to countries like Australia and New Zealand, where the season typically runs from April to October — winter months in the Southern Hemisphere.
The US should take heed, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told Bloomberg News. As people have returned to their normal routines, flu has staggered back, but cases haven’t approached pre-pandemic levels, which means most of us haven’t been exposed to the flu for a few years, said Dr. Jennifer Nayak, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at the University of Rochester Medical Center.
The US government will launch a campaign this fall to urge people to get their flu shots and updated Covid-19 boosters at the same time. “I think we’ve got to keep an eye — if we’re going to have something analogous to Australia — to what goes on in November,” said Jeffrey Shaman, a modeling expert at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health. “Do we start to see flu a little earlier than we typically do? And it may take off. And of course, on top of that, we’ve got to worry about how that compiles with the Covid circulating.
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