What decades of primary polls tell us about the 2020 Democratic presidential race. via FiveThirtyEight
Because the Democratic field is historically large, pollsters have asked about many candidates and potential candidates in 2019. We limited the table to individuals named in at least eight national surveys in the second half of 2019. Second-half data is based on polls that were conducted between July 1 and Dec. 31, 2019, and released by Jan. 3, 2020.
But according to our analysis, someone polling around where Biden was in the second half of the year has roughly a 35 percent chance of claiming the Democratic nomination. A 1-in-3 chance isn’t great, but this is still better than, say, Bernie Sanders’s or Elizabeth Warren’s chances. They essentially tied for second, with an unadjusted polling average around 16 percent in the second half of the year, which historically has meant a 10 percent chance of winning.
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