Speculating on what Trump might do on Jan. 20, 2021, if he’s not taking the oath of office, is a fraught exercise that depends heavily on armchair analysis of Trump’s personality.
Welcome to 2020 Vision, the Yahoo News column covering the presidential race with one key takeaway every weekday and a wrap-up each weekend. Reminder: There are 61 days until the Iowa caucuses and 335 days until the 2020 election.
To be fair, there is nothing that suggests Trump is actually preparing for this eventuality. But these concerns have been raised by, among others, his longtime lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen, who told a House hearing back in February, “I fear that if he loses the election in 2020, that there will never be a peaceful transition of power. And this is why I agreed to appear before you today.”
Story continues“I don’t see much discussion about it,” Rutgers University distinguished professor of political science Ross Baker told Yahoo News, “but I am deeply concerned about the possibility that a close election that the Democrats win would be interpreted by Trump as not having achieved a mandate. The president controls the national narrative, and Trump is particularly good at that. He can demand recounts, do all kinds of things to raise doubts about the legitimacy of a Democratic victory.
The scenarios would play out differently at different points in the process. If the electoral college votes for one or more individual states are in dispute, the issue could go to the Supreme Court, as it did in 2000. After the Electoral College votes it is up to Congress, sitting in joint session, to “certify” the outcome — generally a formality, but no one can say how it might play out if enough members of either party are convinced they’re being cheated.
Ultimately the resolution could be in the hands of Chief Justice John Roberts, who is responsible for administering the oath of office and presumably — although this again has never been put to the test — could refuse to swear in a candidate he regarded as illegitimate.
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