The Chinese economy could be facing a period of lower growth, which may have global ramifications after 45 years of rapid expansion and globalization.
TS Lombard's base case is for a stabilization of the Chinese economy late in 2023, but that the economy is entering a longer-term structural slowdown, albeit not yet a Japan-style "stagflation" scenario, and is likely to average closer to 4% annual GDP growth due to these structural headwinds.
"Those days are gone. China is still going to invest a lot, but it's going to be sort of more advanced manufacturing, tech hardware, like electric vehicles, solar panels, robotics, semiconductors, these types of areas," Green said. "China is still making a lot of stuff, and they can't consume it all at home. A lot of the stuff they're making now is much higher quality and that will continue, especially as there's less money going into real estate, and trillions of renminbi going into these advanced tech sectors," Green said.Street Signs Asia
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