What would happen if Category 5 Hurricane Andrew hit Florida today? Despite huge advances in forecasts and safety measures, Andrew would remain a tough-to-predict storm. Thirty years later, there are also far more people in harm’s way.
in 2002, and the extension of public forecasts to five days in 2003. It’s easy to imagine a forecast cone reaching parts of South Florida up to four or five days before Andrew struck.
On the plus side, radars, satellites and dropsondes from reconnaissance flights can now monitor storms far more completely. Some of that data makes it into today’s much-improved dynamical models.Andrew’s impact was “eye-opening” for the insurance industry, according to Ian Giammanco, lead research meteorologist for the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety .
“With a full six inches of sea level rise since the mid-1990s, an Andrew-like 17-foot storm surge would be able to penetrate further inland and damage more communities,” Morales said. “I think it’s much more difficult to get a message to people today, to get them to understand what you are saying and what you want them to take away,” Norcross said.Norcross also warns that a major cell outage could plunge people into a bigger information hole than in 1992. At that time, battery-operated TVs and/or radios were in common use, and hard-wired landline telephones were ubiquitous.The population of Miami-Dade County has vaulted from around 2 million to 2.7 million since Andrew.
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