The low-lying country has centuries of experience managing water. Now climate change is threatening to flood it completely
“This is really a nightmare scenario, but a serious one,” he added. “It could be less of a nightmare if we start planning now.”A certain amount of sea rise is already inevitable, set in motion by global warming and ice melting caused by decades of carbon emissions.
“This is also at some point irreversible, and we should be very careful not to cross this tipping point, because that means we will be committed to sea level rises of many meters, and that is something that the Netherlands cannot cope with.” Storm barriers can be shut, but this blocks shipping to the port of Rotterdam, which accounts for a significant chunk of the Dutch economy. Interference with the shoreline also affects the Dutch fishing industry. And if the land is below sea level, the rivers that flow over it need to be pumped out over the barriers to the sea, which costs energy.“Technically, a lot is possible. We can raise coastal defenses or dikes.
But major flood works have often been reactive, prompted by disasters such as the 1953 storm that breached the dikes and flooded almost a tenth of Dutch farmland. The disaster killed 1,836 people, destroyed homes and drowned tens of thousands of animals.This year, it commissioned a group of experts, the Sea Level Rise Knowledge Programme, to monitor the issue and map out potential responses.
To help choose the best approach in preparing for a still uncertain future, Haasnoot has developed a model that maps out potential future scenarios and determines what actions should be taken in response to each one. The Netherlands is set to miss its target to reduce emissions by 30 percent by 2020 compared to 1990 levels. This summer, seven political parties from the left and right banded together to pass a climate change law aimed at slashing emissions by 95 percent by 2050. But attempts to follow up with action have been met with fierce lobbying from those affected.
“It’s a belief based on the past,” Kleinhans said. “We're facing something worse than ever in human history, and perhaps in geological history. We've never had this kind of challenge, and we're not ready for it.”Ultimately, however, the Netherlands may have no other option than to adapt, or possibly retreat. A group of farmers at the Overdiepse Polder — not far from the evacuated Noordwaard marshlands — demonstrates the limits of the Dutch model.
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