Who is leading the Democratic race among black women? Which candidate has the support of college graduates? All the answers on our hub:
We estimate support for each candidate using a statistical method called Bayesian dynamic Dirichlet regression. The model aggregates polls over the course of the campaign, putting more weight on polls conducted recently, less on those with small sample sizes and accounting for “house effects”—the tendency for some polling firms to over- or underestimate support for certain candidates. We exclude polling firms that do not use rigorous methods.
We have produced demographic crosstabs using the past four weeks of polling data from YouGov, a polling firm. Richard Ojeda, a West Virginia state senator, also ran for the presidency but he dropped out of consideration on January 25th 2019. He is not included in this interactive.
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