The 2022 results probably won’t resemble the transformation associated with the first midterm after Bill Clinton’s election as president
Newt Gingrich and Bob Dole gloat after Republicans won control of Congress for the first time since 1954. Photo: John Duricka/AP/Shutterstock Nobody is shocked when politicians offer inflated predictions of their own or their party’s electoral prospects. But this prediction from Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, made on Fox News’ Hannity, is unusually easy to see through:
Majority party exposure It’s no accident that Democrats went into 1994 with solid majorities in both Houses of Congress, which meant a large number of its incumbents were on dangerous ground. There were 46 Democratic-controlled House districts that had gone for Poppy Bush in 1992, and 79 that had a Republican advantage in PVI .
The Senate is more complicated because only a third of the chamber is on the ballot in any one two-year cycle. But in 1994 Democrats were defending 22 seats, and the Republicans just 13. In 2010, Democrats were defending 19 seats, compared to the GOP’s 18. In 2022, Republicans will be defending 20 seats and Democrats just 14. It’s not set up for the kind of eight-seat gain Republicans achieved in 1994, or the six-seat gain they won in 2010.
Regional shifts The big underlying factor in 1994 is that the South was definitively unmoored from its ancestral Democratic affiliation, as the ideological polarization of the two parties during the Civil Rights era approached a critical point, with redistricting speeding up the process. For the first time since Reconstruction, Republicans won a majority of the House popular vote in the region and a majority of House seats.
Similarly, in 2010, Republican turnout was up, mostly because the older white voters always most likely to vote in midterm elections were beginning to tilt seriously Republican. Most notably, after narrowly losing the over-65 vote in the previous midterms in 2006, Republicans won it by a 59-38 margin in 2010. That was big, because 58.9 percent of eligible seniors turned out in 2010, as compared to 19.6 percent of eligible 18-24 year-olds and 32.2 percent of 25-44 year-olds.
Presidential approval ratings Whatever else is going on, midterm elections most notably operate as referenda on the President of the United States. If the chief magistrate is unpopular, the party controlling the White House always loses ground, sometimes dramatically. In final pre-election polls in 1994, Bill Clinton’s average job approval rating was 47 percent . In 2010 Obama was at 45 percent; and in 2018 Trump was at 42 percent.
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