Betting markets suggested a red wave was approaching during the midterm elections. Instead, voters delivered a red ripple. Here are a few reasons why betting markets went wrong, according to this political gambling expert.
Ahead of November’s midterm elections, betting markets suggested a red wave was approaching, as they gave Republicans over a 70% chance of winning the U.S. Senate and around a 90% chance of taking control of the House of Representatives.
Pickles: There are arguments that they are generally better or the same as the polls once you factor in noise and you stretch it out over the period of an election. But when you speak to people who are in the community of political gamblers, they tend to be pretty skeptical about the markets as predictors. There are lots of cases where the markets appear kind of manipulated, or they are just following common wisdom or overreacting to recent events.
Pickles: I think it was the the trend towards the Republicans in the polls, responding to economic data. There was also one thing I didn’t mention in the article, but it is really important: The clientele of political gambling are overwhelmingly male, and therefore people weren’t as attuned to the importance of the overturning of Roe v. Wade, and how that was likely to result in larger turnout in certain areas than was necessarily being picked up in the polls.
Pickles: The really long-term, successful political gamblers perform what they call value betting, which is basically where you’re looking for misprices, and then applying that to all kinds of outcomes. So if if you are going to make money on this stuff long term, you need to take a much more measured and rigorous approach.
MarketWatch: What’s your view on what betting markets are saying about the 2024 presidential race? Have you thought about that race?In the betting markets, there are a lot of people who question why Joe Biden is such long odds to win the presidency again.
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