When Bureau of Labor Statistics researchers start counting the numbers for the second quarter, they are likely to take the jobs count down.
Initial benchmark revisions for the payroll count over the past year took 501,000 off original estimates.Payrolls gains have declined in 2019 to the slowest pace in eight years.
Benchmark revisions to government employment data already knocked off 501,000 in the first benchmark revision to be released in January. "The latest quarterly census employment data, on which those revisions are based, suggest that the pace of payroll gains will be revised sharply lower in the second quarter too, painting a significantly weaker picture of the labor market," Hunter said in a recent note to clients.Courtesy Capital Economics. Source: BLS and Refinitiv
To be sure, that's come with a maturing cycle as the longest recovery in U.S. history hits its 10th year. A slowing in job growth would be expected at this point, though there are still more than 7 million job openings against 5.9 million employment seekers, a gap that reflects slack and an ability to expand.
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