'Either we can use models, trying to stay cautious about how much they’re really telling us, or we can rely on conjecture, gut reactions and expert opinion alone. Only the first path is a transparent one with a built-in mechanism for self-correction.'
For the past few months, we’ve heard a lot about statistical models and their predictions of what might happen as the COVID-19 pandemic rages on. Their estimates have varied widely — in part because almost every piece of data that goes into the models is imperfect.
, like characters in a computer game, and then let the game play out according to some algorithm to see what happens. In either case, the scientist has posed what we call aThere’s a challenge with mechanistic models, however. To fully specify a mechanistic model, we have to give actual values tosingle feature of the model.
There is no single way that infectious disease modelers arrive at reliable numbers for these values. Some of these things we can measure. For instance, we can measure the speed at which people isolate by asking people who are hospitalized when they first began to feel symptoms and when they were first isolated . If the delay is five days on average, in some population or other, then the isolation rate for that population is ⅕.
México Últimas Noticias, México Titulares
Similar News:También puedes leer noticias similares a ésta que hemos recopilado de otras fuentes de noticias.
Sun Valley, Idaho has one of the US' highest COVID-19 infection rates - Business InsiderThe share of the Blaine County, Idaho population testing positive for the coronavirus is even greater than in New York City.
Leer más »
How One Artisan Organization Is Combatting Covid-19 — And No, It's Not By Making MasksOriginally an accessories brand that's lately pivoted to tourism, with a focus on connecting travelers to traditional craftspeople within Mexico, Cosa Buena has always had artisan makers at its core:
Leer más »
Billie Eilish, Paul McCartney, Elton John Set for 'One World' COVID-19 Charity SpecialThe Rolling Stones are the latest act to join Global Citizen’s ‘One World: Together at Home’ COVID-19 charity broadcast
Leer más »
COVID-19 patients may be most contagious one to two days before symptoms appear, study findsCOVID-19 patients may be most infectious the day before symptoms appear, according to a study published Wednesday.
Leer más »
Why an analyst bullish on Gilead says antiviral drug ‘won’t solve’ COVID-19“Did remdesivir just ‘solve’ COVID? No,” says Umer Raffat, an analyst at Evercore ISI.
Leer más »
Why it matters that Kellyanne Conway flubbed a basic COVID-19 detailPerhaps the case against the World Health Organization isn't quite as compelling as Team Trump likes to think?
Leer más »