Analysis: The worst-case scenario in Hong Kong may be less likely than another outcome based on a completely different analogy: Poland in 1981
Andrew Nagorski is a former Newsweek foreign correspondent and editor, whose postings included Hong Kong, Warsaw and Moscow. He is the author ofAs tensions continue to escalate in Hong Kong, especially after the police arrested two protest leaders on Friday in an attempt to discourage new mass rallies planned for this weekend, the greatest fear is that mainland China will intervene directly with overwhelming force.
Within the Soviet bloc, Poles carved out a special place for themselves. Although communist apparatchiks called the political shots, they recognized quickly that they could not follow their usual pattern of collectivizing agriculture and cracking down on religion. Poland’s fiercely independent small farmers would not tolerate the former, and the Catholic Church commanded the allegiance of the overwhelming majority of the population, who would have revolted before tolerating the latter.
Impatient with Kania’s indecisive leadership and Solidarity’s calls for more sweeping freedoms throughout the Soviet bloc, Moscow engineered yet another shake-up in Warsaw, replacing him with General Wojciech Jaruzelski. The new communist boss immediately called for an end to all strikes, promising to take “extraordinary means of action” if he was disobeyed. On December 13, 1981, he did just that, declaring martial law, banning Solidarity and arresting many of its leaders and activists.
After Solidarity triumphed and the Polish communist regime collapsed in 1989, triggering the chain of events that led to the implosion of the Soviet Union two years later, new evidence surfaced about what had really happened.
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