Will cutting unemployment benefits in America ease labour shortages?

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Will cutting unemployment benefits in America ease labour shortages?
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The evidence so far is muddy, and points to at most a small effect | Finance & economics

ran an article on Missouri, a state that abolished the supplement on June 12th, claiming that people were flying off the unemployment rolls. The very same day theran an article also on Missouri, which drew almost exactly the opposite conclusion. The reality is somewhere in between these polarised extremes. Making benefits less generous may help America’s jobs market a little—but other factors do more to explain labour shortages.

Removing the $300 weekly top-up certainly makes living off welfare less comfortable. At that level 40% of people are earning more than they were in their previous jobs. It is hard to say right now, however, whether imposing tougher conditions translates into more vigorous job searches. The first four states to abolish the supplement did so too late for the effect, if any, to show up in the latest jobs report, released on July 2nd.

It will not be until the August jobs report, released in September, that wonks will have a better idea of what is really going on at the state level. It seems likely, though, that overall employment in America will by then be somewhat higher than it would have been without the cut to.

People’s care responsibilities are one big impediment to returning to work . A pile of “excess” household savings accumulated during the pandemic, amounting to more than $2trn in total, has made it easier for many Americans to withstand a spell of unemployment, say until they find the perfect job. Others are depending on the salary of a spouse or partner. Moreover, fear of catching covid-19 is still apparently holding many people back.

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