The largest rate drops since 1988 came with 2.1% one-year gains in the number of closed transactions.
Just how slow is the market? Well, consider that in the 12 months ending in August, just 65,140 Los Angeles County homes were sold, according to CoreLogic data. That’s 37% below the homebuying pace of two years earlier.August’s median price of $830,000 – the sixth-highest ever – is up 34% since February 2020. Meanwhile, mortgage rates went from 3.5% to 7.1%. A typical Los Angeles buyer saw house payments surge 100% to $4,462 monthly, assuming a 20% downpayment.
We contrasted the periods when rates surged the fastest vs. times when mortgages tumbled the most. Both groupings averaged 1 percentage-point moves over 35 years.Start with pricing. When mortgages were in their steepest jumps, home values in LA averaged 7.6% one-year gains.By the way, the local median price has appreciated 4.7% since 1988.And falling rates modestly boost the LA sales pace, historically speaking.
When rates surged over the past 35 years, California employment grew at a 2.7%-a-year pace. But jobs shrank at a 0.7% annual pace when rates tumbled.This isn’t just some local housing quirk. Falling rates come with pricing weakness in many places.
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