Cutting welfare may push some people into poverty and millions of renters in America could face eviction. The least productive firms might go bust
IN “GAME OF THRONES”, a fantasy drama, a duel takes place between Khal Drogo, a fearsome warrior, and a rival. Khal Drogo comes off unscathed from the brutal battle, suffering only a scratch to his chest. But the wound festers, gradually weakening the fighter. A few scenes later, Khal Drogo falls off his horse and eventually dies.
Taken together, all these schemes have been remarkably successful in preventing much of the economic scarring usually seen after a recession. That is not to deny that many people have suffered deprivation; global extreme poverty, for instance, has risen sharply. Yet in the rich world overall family finances look surprisingly strong. Real disposable income per person rose by 3% in 2020 even as GDP tanked . Government spending on extra unemployment benefits and cash transfers, which came to 2.
Yet overall spending may not suffer much. Households in aggregate have saved far more than normal . Our analysis of OECD data puts the level of “excess” savings across the club of mostly rich countries at $3trn, worth a tenth of overall annual consumer spending. The big worry about consumers in 2021 is not that an already large cash pile is no longer being topped up, but thatThe second concern relates to job-protection schemes.
The third concern is perhaps the most significant—and is also the hardest to judge. It relates to bills that are due but as yet unpaid, from taxes and interest to rents. These are extremely difficult to measure. Although companies rushed to borrow and issue debt early on in the pandemic, indebtedness has grown less rapidly since. But it is far from clear how company or national accounts treat bills that are overdue or deferred.Debtors themselves may not know where they stand.
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