Democrats’ $1.85 trillion package of social and climate initiatives seems afflicted by a maddening parade of hurdles. Looming ahead is the Congressional Budget Office, which could cause problems that would be messy but probably surmountable.
The office, created in 1974 as Congress’ nonpartisan fiscal scorekeeper, is working on a 10-year cost estimate of the bill and its component spending and tax proposals. The key question politically is how close the measure comes to paying for itself with savings, like President Joe Biden and top Democrats claim it does.A BIG DEAL FOR MODERATES
Pelosi, D-Calif., hopes to finally push the measure through her chamber next week. The Senate is certain to change the bill and its work will take longer.The budget office has released estimates on pieces of the 2,100-page legislation. It has promised overall figures “as soon as practicable, but the exact timing is uncertain.
Under guidelines CBO follows, it’s not expected to credit the bill with any savings from tougher tax audits. In any event, the budget office projected in September that giving the IRS $80 billion would yield just $200 billion in additional revenue.Even if CBO’s numbers aren’t great, there’s reason to believe the bill would survive. When lawmakers have reached a political consensus to do something, bad budget numbers seldom upend it.
If the bill’s savings fall short but Democrats find the political payoff for passage irresistibly strong, they might decide to swallow some red ink and insist the bill would bolster the economy. CBO saidwhich Biden plans to sign Monday, will increase deficits by $256 billion over the next decade, but almost all Democrats and some Republicans backed it anyway.
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