It is hard to imagine a solution to Venezuela’s agony that does not include Nicolás Maduro's departure
months since Juan Guaidó began his attempt to remove Venezuela’s leftist dictatorship, the strain is showing. The 35-year-old’s jet-black hair is peppered with grey. His eyes seem weary. He has dropped his snappy slogan, “But the need to end the rule of Nicolás Maduro is as strong as ever. His mismanagement, plus sanctions imposed in January on Venezuela’s oil industry by the United States, will cause the economy to shrink by more than 25% this year.
That plan has suffered one reversal after another. In February Mr Guaidó promised to bring in hundreds of tonnes of humanitarian aid, which had been stockpiled on Venezuela’s borders, “come what may”. Barely any got through. Last month it was distributed to Venezuelan migrants in Colombia.
Remittances have replaced part of the lost oil money. Some 4m people, 12% of the population, have left Venezuela since the economic crisis became acute in 2014. Net remittances have risen from $200m in 2016 to $2bn in 2018. Another source of cash is gold, much of it mined by wildcatters with scant concern for the environmental damage they cause. These sidelines do not provide enough money to sustain imports. In 2018 non-oil imports were nearly 90% lower than in 2012.
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