In the past two years London house prices, in real terms, have fallen by a tenth. The rest of the country is following suit
a decade ago, in an obscure corner of the economy, there was an early warning sign that Britain was about to fall into recession. Months before the downturn had been confirmed, the maker of Dulux paints reported that sales of its decorative range were down. Faced with global economic uncertainty and a weakening labour market, Britons were cutting back on refurbishment. At the same time, lower demand for new houses meant that builders needed fewer materials.
A few factors explain the slowdown. One is a tax reform in 2016 that subjected buy-to-let investors to higher stamp duty, a tax on property purchases. Another is the fact that foreign buyers, who snap up London flats as investments and status symbols, are giving Brexit Britain a wider berth. Tighter monetary policy is also playing a role. Since November 2017 the Bank of England has raised interest rates from 0.25% to 0.75%.
The supply side of the market is also taking a hit. In recent decades the housing market has often seemed like a one-way bet, with real house prices rising faster than in any other7 country. Now, confronted by falling prices, sellers of land are putting their plans on hold. A land-buyer for one of the big housebuilding companies complains that finding plots for sale has become more difficult.
One worry is that declining house prices will dent consumer confidence, which is already low. Research on the American market finds that homeowners feel poorer if the value of their house is falling, which in turn leads them to reduce their spending. Yet studies by the Bank of England suggest that in Britain the vagaries of the property market have only a small effect on consumption. Household spending is holding up fairly well so far.
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