4 really worrisome things about Hurricane Dorian from the perspective of the former President of the American Meteorological Society.
the global models show this shear diminishing within 12-24 hours. With lower shear and very warm waters, all of the intensity models forecast Dorian to begin strengthening again soon, and rapid intensification could occur...Dorian is likely to reach major hurricane strength in the next day or two and is forecast to maintain that status until it reaches land.The graphic below illustrates that there is ample warm water and no major wind shear barriers ahead of Dorian's path.
I am also concerned about where Dorian goes after landfall. There is certainly a chance that the storm could drift into the Gulf of Mexico and produce a second landfall. The models showed that scenario yesterday. However, more recent runs of the American GFS model and the European model, take the storm up the Florida peninsula. The American model has the storm lingering into Georgia .
The models will change in the coming days and likely converge to more consistent guidance . For now, the entire Florida and southeast coastal community should be on alert. Even if you live in the eastern Gulf Coast states, I wouldn't completely take my eyes off of the storm yet.Strader, a professor of Geography, Atmospheric Sciences, and Hazards at Villanova University
Growing concern with #Dorian looking like it is strengthening and head towards #Florida. Substantial growth in population the built-environment exacerbates impacts and increased the odds of disaster. Prime example of Expanding Bull's Eye EffectThe number of housing unites per hectare in Florida in 1950 and 2019Strader raises an interesting point about the amount of vulnerable infrastructure.
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