China tariffs could drop 50%, but all depends on Beijing
The much touted phase one trade deal includes no December 15 tariffs on consumer goods and agreements by China to return to the U.S. agriculture market, buy more manufactured goods—likely auto—and get tougher on intellectual property, something China was already doing.
It seems no one in the press has seen the phase one agreement, but it is believed to be over 100 pages with numerous chapters and fairly similar to an agreement hammered out in May, which China ultimately rejected. The XTracker CSI-300 China A-Shares exchange-traded fund started selling off in the early afternoon hours.... [+]Alex Wong/Getty Images
Investment firms have been skeptical of a phase one trade deal, but consensus was that the December tariffs would be put on pause. Investors seems willing to hedge that the two sides would agree to something soon, rather than escalate tensions. Unless the Chinese side signs the deal in the wee hours of the night, then markets are not going to know about a signing until the weekend, or Monday in the base case.
“We are in a very early phase in a big discussion. Things are changing constantly,” says Gerardo Zamorano, a fund manager for Brandes in San Diego running a $1.45 billion emerging markets fund that is currently underweight China. “I wouldn’t be surprised if you roll back tariffs only to revise them again,” he says.
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