Rwanda's national statistics might impress investors and other leaders, but international academics are disputing the figures
of Rwanda’s capital sits the Kigali Convention Centre, a $300m monument that lights up the night with the national colours of blue, yellow and green. It symbolises modernity and prosperity in a country that has bounced back from a genocide in 1994 when perhaps 500,000 people, mostly Tutsis, were killed.
Questions have hung over Rwanda’s statistics since the government claimed in 2014 that poverty had declined to 39% from 45% in 2011. A closer examination of the data by Filip Reyntjens of the University of Antwerp found that the fall was largely due to a change in how it calculates the numbers. In 2011 Rwanda’s poverty line reflected the cost of consuming a basket of the foods that poor Rwandans were buying.
But its rebuttal relied on an estimate of inflation that has invited new questions. One academic who has dissected the price figures is Sam Desiere of the University of Leuven in Belgium. He thought the official rate of food inflation was curiously low at 5.3% a year. After recalculating the figure using the statistics agency’s own survey data on how much households were spending, Mr Desiere found that food prices had increased by 9.4% a year.
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