Stock markets seen pulling back from records as strong jobs report puts interest rate cuts in question

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Stock markets seen pulling back from records as strong jobs report puts interest rate cuts in question
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Dow sustains triple-digit loss as jobs data cast new doubt on rate-cut prospect

U.S. stock futures retreated Friday morning, after the monthly government payrolls report estimated the economy added a better-than-expected 224,000 jobs in June, reducing the chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July.

The trio of equity gauges finished at all-time highs on the same day for the first time since Jan. 26, 2018, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Prior to the jobs release Wall Street, as gauged by CME Group data, was pricing in a near-certain reduction of rates, with the market placing a 25% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points, rather than its typical 25, later this month. After the release, the probability of a 50 basis point cut fell to 15.2%.

Also potentially on investors radar were ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. Markets rallied earlier this week on the news that President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping had agreed to restart trade negotiation and Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products, while the U.S. pledged to not implement new tariffs and to allow U.S. tech companies to sell some goods to Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies Inc.

“This means Trump will have to defend any deal with Beijing against Democrat criticism. It also remains the case that the Fed, via its dovish language of late, has enabled Trump’s hardline on trade,” he added.

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