The markets look too overheated, says this veteran trader.
Enjoy the Great December 2019 Stock Market Melt-Up while it lasts because the reality is, the situation could turn on a dime by late January.
Adds SEI Non-Traditional Strategies CIO Jim Smigiel, “It’s always good for investors to remember that we are talking about equity markets here. Although volatility has been incredibly low over the last number of years, it is always likely to remind investors that it is there. So a 6% to 8% pullback [in January] would be relatively normal, and should be expected by everyone in the market. Just about anything could cause it.
Story continuesEven if one could justify the S&P 500 delivering 10% earnings growth in 2020, stocks don’t look too attractive compared to a rich 19 times price-to-earnings multiple on the index right now. And last but not least in terms of a January market pullback driver, stocks have mostly surged this month on no new news. Sure there was the U.S./China phase one trade deal getting done, but that was expected for months. And yes, Amazon announced a record-breaking holiday sales season on Thursday — but even that should have been seen coming amid the strong online sales data from Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
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