Even if vaccines eliminate the need to return to strict measures, consumers may become too anxious to visit bars and restaurants
To see how the latest rich-world coronavirus waves are likely to develop, consider that on July 20th America reported a seven-day moving average of 112 new cases for every million people. That is roughly where Britain, with a higher rate of vaccination, more restrictions and deadlier past outbreaks, was in mid-June before Delta got going. Britain now has 699 cases per million, the fifth-highest rate in the world.
The economic consequences of this will depend on how policymakers and consumers react. So far Los Angeles has brought back its mask mandate and New Orleans says it is studying new restrictions. Even if vaccines allow policymakers to avoid the return to strict measures, consumers may be too anxious to visit bars and restaurants. In Britain measures of mobility are down only slightly since June, but the experiment is still new. Exponential growth means that things can change fast.
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